20.11.2017 change 20.11.2017

Demographer: The number of marriages will drop by a quarter

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According to demographic data, in the perspective of the next decade the number of newly married couples in Poland will decrease by about a quarter.

This means a deterioration of the situation of the wedding industry, which - according to conservative estimates - generates at least PLN 6-7 billion turnover per year - noted Prof. Piotr Szukalski, demographer from the University of Lodz.

"Considering that marriages in Poland today are between about 26-year-old women and 28-year-old men, we must realize that in the coming years, the number of these people, in the best age to get married, will be decreasing" - emphasised Prof. Szukalski.

The people born in late 1980s and the 1990s will naturally reach this age. "In every year there are between 3 and 5 percent less births, which translates into a steady decline" - he added.

In his view, the number of new marriages in the next decade should be expected to decrease by a quarter, even though the number of re-marriages will continue to slightly increase. "This is an inescapable result of very rapid decrease in the number of births in the 1990s" - he emphasised.

The expert estimates that in the 10-year perspective the number of newly married couples will decrease by about 40-50 thousand per year, which means a decline from the current level of 180-190 thousand to 140-150 thousand marriages per year.

All this is bad news for people in the wedding industry - said the demographer.

The expert noted that marriage is an important economic act, although the economic significance of wedding ceremonies is usually underestimated. Assuming conservatively that typical wedding costs PLN 25 thousand, and the total number of new marriages in recent years was about 190 thousand - this means the organization costs in excess of PLN 4.7 billion a year, according to the researcher.

This amount, probably underestimated, means income for tens of thousands of people engaged in sewing and selling wedding dresses, organising weddings, as well as providing catering, music or photography services. If you add the cost of clothing, flowers, gifts and travel by invited guests - it turns out that the "wedding industry" generates at least PLN 6-7 billion annual turnover.

Prof. Szukalski emphasised that bad news for people making a living on wedding organization is reinforced by another factor - a growing proportion of re-marriages. In this case, when the formalization of a second relationship takes place, it is made of less pomp and ceremony.

"It is more often a ceremony without a wedding marriage, or with a small reception, and this simply means not entering the wedding services market at all. All this indicates that, from a demographic perspective, the amounts that are going to be spent in the future on the organisation of and weddings and wedding receptions will be smaller than they are now" - the demographer said.

This means a lot more competition of, for example, wedding venues and bridal shops. "From the point of view of people who are planning to marry in 5-10 years, this is a very good news, as opposed to those who have a professional career in the wedding business" - concluded Prof. Szukalski. (PAP)

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